FUND A LIFE YOU LOVE
ARTWORKS   Non-Profit of the Month

ARTWORKS Non-Profit of the Month

ArtWorks transforms people and places through investments in creativity.  Founded in 1996, ArtWorks is an award-winning non-profit organization that employs and trains local youth and talent to create art and community impact through three strategic programming areas: Public Art, including an extensive mural program; an art therapy division, ArtRx; and an entrepreneurial arm, Creative Enterprise. ArtWorks is the largest visual arts employer in the region. To date, ArtWorks has hired over 3,000 area youth, 2,000 professional local artists, and trained nearly 300 creative entrepreneurs.

Click here to visit Artworks website!

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Event Recap: What Will P&G and Corporate America Look Like in 5-10 Years?

Event Recap: What Will P&G and Corporate America Look Like in 5-10 Years?

Event Recap: The Future of P&G and Corporate America

Last Wednesday we had a great discussion on how Trian would impact P&G over the next year to two. What we know is that as far as activists groups go, they are among the best in the lot. They tend to work  very constructively with senior management and the board and  to have really great ideas on how to improve performance and get shareholder price up. Trian is not necessarily a bad thing and, in many cases, it could be something very positive.

A big part of the discussion was about "What if I work at P&G?" While we talked about stock price, stock options and profit sharing, one thing we really emphasized was-  Do you need a Plan B? For some who work at P&G, they may not have the job security they thought they might have.  The best way to deal with that is to say, "If I need a Plan B, what is it?"

This is where Lenox and our Wealth Creation Unique Process can really help. Do you know what your strengths are? Do you know where you add the most value? Do you understand where, if you left P&G, you could go where you might add value?

Lenox also has new interactive financial planning technology. We an set up a base example of where you are financially.  You are able to  go in and run scenarios on the software and consider different options. This combination of tools is designed to help the P&G employee sort things out as Trian enters the stage.

Please enjoy and share our PowerPoint presentation.

Change at GE Likely to Head Off Fight With Trian

Change at GE Likely to Head Off Fight With Trian

Change at GE Likely to Head Off Fight With Trian

Trian is a major shareholder of both P&G and GE. As was discussed in our seminar, "What will P&G and Corporate America Look Like in 5-10 Years", each employee at P&G today needs a Plan B. We can learn from what is going on at GE.

Click Here to Read More!

May 2017 Outlook on Procter and Gamble (P&G)

May 2017 Outlook on Procter and Gamble (P&G)

May 2017 Outlook on Procter and Gamble (P&G)

Current P&G Stock Outlook:

·      We are increasing our 12-month outlook to $96/share.

·      In our $96/share target, we have included a $7/share reserve for upside reflecting the positive impact of Trian Partners recent $3.5 billion investment in P&G.

·      For perspective, Wall Street analysts have an average 12-month stock price target of $91.50/share.  Analyst forecasts currently range between $79/share and $104/share. Please note there has been a $1.58 or 1.8% increase in the Wall Street Analyst average since our January 2017 outlook.

Highlights of P&G’s Quarterly Results:

·      P&G continues to deliver on the forecast, but the overall results are very incremental.

·      P&G had total organic sales growth of 1% for the quarter.

·      P&G reported third quarter fiscal year 2017 net sales of $15.6 billion, a decrease of 1% versus the prior year (this includes a negative 2% impact from foreign exchange).

·      Organic sales increased in four of five business segments.

·      Core earnings per share were $0.96, an increase of 12% versus the prior year.

·      In Q3, P&G returned $1.8 billion of cash to shareholders as dividends, and repurchased $2.0 billion of common stock.

·      In April, P&G announced a dividend increase to $0.6896 per share, which represents a 3% increase compared to the prior quarterly dividend.

Fiscal Year 2017 Guidance:

·      FY 2017 guidance continues to be incremental; the earnings calls continue to be uninspiring.

·      P&G’s guidance for organic sales growth is in the range of 2 – 3%.

·      P&G expects foreign exchange and minor brand divestitures to reduce sales growth by 2 – 3%.

·      P&G estimates all-in sales for FY 2017 to be down 1% to in-line with the prior fiscal year.

·      P&G maintained its expectation for core earnings per share growth in the mid-single digits versus FY 2016 of $3.67.

·      Consistent with the recent past, the company remains focused on total shareholder return (TSR) through a combination of modest sales growth, increased operating margins, and improved free cash flow.

·      For FY 2017, dividends are expected to be in the $7 billion range, with additional share repurchases of $5 billion. This $5 billion does not include a $9.4 billion share reduction from the Coty sale.  

·      We expect the combination of dividends and share repurchases will keep modest upward pressure on the stock while reducing downside risk if there is U.S. market correction due to a recession. 

Understanding our $96 Price Target:

·      The main drivers necessary to reach our $96 price target include:

o   Activist Investor, Trian Partners $3.5 billion stake in P&G—Trian Partners has a long history of working with Boards of Directors and senior management to bring transformational change and increased shareholder value. We believe that with Trian’s involvement, P&G will trade closer to intrinsic value and perhaps above that. We also believe that Trian will bring about faster transformational change, which could include a restructuring of the balance sheet, a possible break-up of the company and faster headcount reductions.  We believe the overall impact Trian may have on the stock is + $30/share over the next 24-36 months.

o   Continued Cost Cutting—P&G continues to focus on driving out organizational inefficiencies. After completing a $10 billion initiative launched in 2012, P&G launched another $10 billion cost savings initiative. The company expects much of this cost savings to come from driving down the cost of goods.

o   Sales Growth P&G estimates all-in sales to be down 1% to in-line with the prior fiscal year. As we look at sales beyond FY 2017, the strong dollar will continue to pose a challenge for international and overall sales growth.

o   Share Repurchases—P&G closed the Coty transaction in FY 17 Q2, which resulted in a share reduction of $9.4 billion. P&G expects to buy back an additional $5 billion in shares. Share repurchases will continue to be a critical component of our price target.

o   Macroeconomic, Political, and Competitive Risks—P&G identified several key risks that they have not taken into consideration in their FY 2017 guidance: Significant deceleration of market growth rates, further political and economic volatility, further currency weakness, and further commodity cost increases.

Recommendation:

  • Call us for Lenox Recommendations! 513-618-7080 or contact us at info@lenoxwealth.com

Here are some questions you might have if you currently work at P&G:

  • What should I know about Trian Partners and their investment stake in P&G?
  • The last activist P&G investor was Bill Ackman. How is this different? 
  • How does this impact my career outlook with P&G? Should I stay or leave?
  • If I decide to leave, am I better off leaving now or waiting?
  • If P&G has significant restructuring, will my position be eliminated?
  • Trian Partners also invested in Kraft Foods. If I use this as a case study, what can I learn?
  • If I was considering leaving P&G, should this change my thinking?
  • What processes are there to help me rethink and recreate my career?
  • How can Lenox Help?
  • What should I do next? 

We think Lenox’s FinLife Experience needs to be your next step! 

  • You need Clarity, which you can get through our Money Mind® Analyzer and Honest Conversations ® exercise.
  • You need Confidence through your personalized Financial Control Scorecard®, so you know your next move is the best move for your family.
  • You need Control, which you will get through our Client Guidebook. The Roadmap outlines what we need to do in the next 12 months, as well as many years down the road.
  • You need Coaching, so you feel like this potential change in life was the best opportunity you ever had. 
  • Lenox is a Fiduciary and unlike Broker Dealers, we only get paid by our clients, not third party fund managers.
  • We are a Family Office and provide a full menu of financial services. 
  • Find out more information about Lenox at our website: http://lenoxwealth.com 

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory/management services. This is not intended to be personalized investment advice. Please contact a Lenox adviser if you would like additional information.

Source: P&G Earnings Release 04/26/2017

 

The Most Important Thing Warren Buffet Said Yesterday

15 years ago our team left a well-known national brokerage firm to create an independent firm dedicated to families. At that time, we committed to invest 10% in Berkshire Hathaway stock and 50% in low cost, tax efficient index mutual funds.

I  had a wonderful day today listening to Warren Buffet at the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, capped off by a wonderful lunch time interview of Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard.

-John Lame

Click Here to Read More.

Image Source: The Motley Fool

Image Source: The Motley Fool

1N5 Non-Profit of the Month

1N5 was created in memory of Jim Miller, who died by suicide in July 2008.

Our goal is to STOP the stigma and RAISE awareness by bringing mental health education to greater Cincinnati schools.

Warrior Run 5K began in 2010 and works in partnership with Cincinnati Children's Hospital Surviving the Teens®, a mental health awareness/suicide prevention program offered to middle/high school students. The organization has donated a total of $315,000 to CCHMC in support of this program and that funding makes up nearly 50% of the program budget each year. The program currently serve 25% of Greater Cincinnati area high schools and it is the goal to serve 75% by the end of 2017.

In 2014, with the aid of former UC President Santa Ono, the organization introduced the College and High School Challenge. Through these Challenges, the organization has donated over $200,000 back to participating school to address the mental health issues of area college and high school students. During Challenges, partner colleges and high schools are in competition through student participation in the Warrior Run 5K, service hours and fundraising. Participating colleges receive $5K, high schools $2K, and they keep all raised funds for mental health program development. Winning schools receive a $1.5K scholarship to award a student who is managing a mental health diagnosis, or one volunteering in the mental health field. A Mental Wellness Week, reaching approximately 15,000 college students each year, is part of a community-wide initiative to raise awareness and funds for mental health and suicide prevention.

Since 2010 1N5 has raised over $515,000 and impacted 75,000 university students and 15,000 high school students. In May 2016, a new event was initiated: the annual 1N5 Spring4Life fundraising event, and in July unveiled www.1N5.org: a resource to detect signs and symptoms of mental illness, sources for help, as well as a place for teens to safely tell their stories. For even greater reach, we utilize social media and local billboards.

We develop relevant and sustainable mental health and suicide prevention programs for area high schools and colleges with the intent to start this very important conversation. To teach students the symptoms of mental health, what to look for not only in themselves but also in their friends, the actions to take if identified, and resources available in and outside the school to start normalizing mental health education.

1N5 aims to end the stigma surrounding mental health and start the conversation by raising awareness in schools and universities in greater Cincinnati.  Nationally, 20% of youth ages 13-18 are living with a mental health condition; 1 in 5 teens are suffering. In 2016, in Cincinnati alone, 21 youth died by suicide. We want to stop this trend. Openness and conversation are the keys to meaningful change to our youth who are in crisis. We are driven to touch the lives of Cincinnati's youth by teaching ways to connect and build community, to foster leaders and to improve and save lives.

In 2017 we plan to increase the local high schools we serve from 25% to 75%. This plan will take shape through the partnership we have with Cincinnati Children's Hospital, Mind Peace and the relationships formed with current districts we serve.

Learn more at www.1N5.org

 

 

6 Ways to Stop Overthinking Everything

Getting stuck in your head? How do you move on? Here are some tips on how to get into the right mindset and move on to more productive thinking. Challenge yourself to get there!

Click Here to Read More!

Credit: Getty Images

Credit: Getty Images

Signs You'll Never Be Rich

Wealth is about loving what you do, setting goals, saving money, trying something different! All of us have the ability to gain wealth- but we need a plan and mindset to do so. What habits can you tweak to help you get started? 

Click Here to Read!

wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

27 Quotes to Change How You Think About Problems

Problems- are they are good thing or a bad thing? We try to avoid them, not realizing their value. Here is a list of quotes from 27 great minds. One of our favorites- "“Every problem is a gift. Without them we wouldn’t grow” – Tony Robbins"

Click Here to Read More

Credit Bettmann/Getty Images

Credit Bettmann/Getty Images

DePaul Cristo Rey Non-Profit of the Month

 

Persistent, generational poverty continues to plague Greater Cincinnati; the city is ranked among those with the highest childhood poverty rates in the country. Quality education with access to better opportunities and a focus on college can move children out of this cycle, and that underlies the mission of DePaul Cristo Rey High School.

DePaul Cristo Rey, located in Clifton, serves only low-income students through the nationally recognized Cristo Rey education model. This powerful and innovative approach to education pairs rigorous academics with a Corporate Work Study Program. In a faith-based environment, all students attend college-preparatory classes while working five days a month in office, health care or education settings around the city. The school has 130-plus Corporate Partners across all industries including finance, architecture and law. The students’ earnings help to pay part of their own education costs while exposing them to careers and mentors as they develop their professional skills. At work the focus is on their transformation into young professionals; at school the focus is on their transformation into college-ready graduates.

In just six years since the school opened in 2011, the results are turning heads. 100 percent of the first three graduating classes have achieved college acceptance, test data shows an increase in academic proficiency, a college success program is tracking and supporting alumni, and Ohio Governor Kasich recognized the school in January with an Innovation in Education Award.

Visit  http://www.depaulcristorey.org to see how you can help!

·      

Lenox P&G Outlook

Lenox P&G Outlook

 

Activist Investor, Trian Partners,

Takes $3 billion Plus Stake in Procter & Gamble (P&G)

 

The purpose of this communication is to update you on our thinking on P&G given the recent $3 billion plus investment by Trian Partners and lay out how Lenox can help you navigate this. 

Background: 

  • Going back to our May 2015 P&G outlook, Lenox made the observation, “Over the next 24 months, if P&G does not begin to grow top line revenue and fix the product pipeline, we believe P&G could come under pressure, again, from investors (including retired senior management who have stock options) and activist investor groups to accelerate headcount reductions, break up the company, or recapitalize the balance sheet. Like GE, there appears to be an opportunity for PG to borrow money at a low after tax cost and use the proceeds to buy back shares. If P&G is willing to consider these more aggressive changes, the share value could increase to above $100.” 
  • Lenox had indicated there was a 1/3 probability that P&G would attract another activist shareholder group. We believed there were several reasons why this could occur:
    • The current capital structure (low debt to equity weighting) and the high dividend (shareholders get taxed twice once at the company level and again at the shareholder level).
    • The ongoing struggle for the company to grow top line revenue.
    • The slow, incremental approach to cost cutting relative to other CPG companies. 
    • The number of functions that could be purchased from outside rather than done inside.
    • The company’s failure to deliver significant value based on investments in R&D and Product Development.
    • The number of senior managers who had retired and received little value for their options. This created a group of willing advisors and consultants to the activist shareholder community. 
    • The Board’s failure to place enough ongoing pressure on the management team, without outside pressure.
    • Potentially attractive economics of breaking the company up into smaller, easier-to-manage business units, with less bureaucracy and overhead.
    • A potentially overpaid management group based on the amount of equity and option compensation.  

What do we know about Trian:

  • They bring a private equity mindset to the public markets.
  • They are both credible and effective as activist shareholders. 
  • They invest primarily in large companies.
  • They typically buy at an attractive price and have specific plans and timeframes in mind to significantly enhance shareholder value. 
  • They managed a focused portfolio, typically between 7-10 investments.
  • They have about $10 billion under management.
  • The investment in P&G is one of the largest they have ever made.
  • They typically build a position and then quietly let management and the Board know they have taken the position. They prefer private dialogue at the appropriate levels rather than public dialogue.
  • They are willing to do proxy contests to change governance and the direction of the company but it happens less than 10% of the time. 
  • They frequently ask for Board representation. 
  • They have a long history of turnaround and operational experience. They typically bring increased focused on shareholder returns and increased accountability to the shareholder by both the Board and senior management.
  • They typically hold investments between 3-5 years and sometimes as long as 8 years. 

What do we think the outcome will be:

  • We believe this will be good for P&G shareholders and bring greater economic value in a shorter period of time. 
  • Over the last several years, P&G has frequently traded below intrinsic value. We believe with Trian’s involvement, P&G will frequently trade closer to intrinsic value and perhaps above that. 
  • We believe Trian will bring transformational change faster. This may include:
    • Restructure to the balance sheet 
    • A change in the dividend 
    • Break-up of the company
    • More aggressive headcount reductions
  • We believe the company could trade between $120 and $130/share over the next 36-50 months. 

Recommendation if you are a P&G Shareholder or Option Holder:

  • Call us for Lenox Recommendations! 513-618-7080 or contact us at info@lenoxwealth.com

Here are some questions you might have if you currently work at P&G:

  • What should I know about Trian Partners and their investment stake in P&G?
  • The last activist P&G investor was Bill Ackman. How is this different? 
  • How does this impact my career outlook with P&G? Should I stay or leave?
  • If I decide to leave, am I better off leaving now or waiting?
  • If P&G has significant restructuring, will my position be eliminated?
  • Trian Partners also invested in Kraft Foods. If I use this as a case study, what can I learn?
  • If I was considering leaving P&G, should this change my thinking?
  • What processes are there to help me rethink and recreate my career?
  • How can Lenox Help?
  • What should I do next? 

We think Lenox’s FinLife Experience needs to be your next step!

  • You need Clarity, which you can get through our Money Mind® Analyzer and Honest Conversations ® exercise.
  • You need Confidence through your personalized Financial Control Scorecard®, so you know your next move is the best move for your family.
  • You need Control, which you will get through our Client Guidebook. The Roadmap outlines what we need to do in the next 12 months, as well as many years down the road.
  • You need Coaching, so you feel like this potential change in life was the best opportunity you ever had. 
  • Lenox is a Fiduciary and unlike Broker Dealers, we only get paid by our clients, not third party fund managers.
  • We are a Family Office and provide a full menu of financial services. 
  • Find out more information about Lenox at our website: http://lenoxwealth.com 

 

Additional References:

  • Contact Lenox for Trian Partners Fact Sheet and Trian “White Papers” 513-618-7080 or info@lenoxwealth.com

 

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory/management services. This is not intended to be personalized investment advice. Please contact a Lenox adviser if you would like additional information.

 

What Happens When You Take Full Responsibility of Your Life

What Happens When You Take Full Responsibility of Your Life

Indecision can be debilitating, preventing us from moving forward in our lives. What do we need to do to keep from drifting? Do you have a purpose, or a passion in life?  To make it real, you need to make a commitment to move forward. What steps should you take? Interesting article!

At Lenox, we help you discover your strengths and how you can put them to work to create and build wealth. It’s a powerful difference in working with Lenox. Using leading-edge assessment tools, we explore your gifts and identify opportunities to leverage and create value around them… guiding you to the career and lifestyle choices that help drive financial success. We help you FUND A LIFE YOU LOVE® Call us today!

Click Here to Read More!

How to Become World Class at What You Do

Nine steps to become world class at what you do! A different way of looking at things may have a big impact on how we perform. We can get locked into same old mindset when instead we need to look outside the box and do things a little bit differently. A new mindset will make all the difference.

Click here to read more!